Will your influencer campaign hit ROAS?
Pick a vertical, market and budget. The forecast pulls from the same engine that powers our delivered campaigns — predicted CPA, expected conversions, projected revenue and ROAS, anchored on $8M+ of tracked delivery and the InfluBase.io creator-overlap model.
Last updated 2026-04-30 · Same data anchor as Cost Atlas and Match Preview.
The forecast hinges on this number. Use D60 contribution margin (revenue minus variable costs), not gross sale price. Default is the Mobile Games blended average — if your unit economics are different, override here.
Below break-even on direct-revenue economics at this budget — 8–15 creators is single-bet territory where 1 underperforming creator can sink the whole campaign average. Larger budgets (~$25K+) portfolio-diversify into a workable band, or pair this budget with a softer-launch market where CPA is 3–6× cheaper.
Net of budget-scaled incrementality — attributed revenue is discounted to reflect what wouldn't have converted via other channels. Small budgets (single-bet creators) get a deeper discount; large budgets (full portfolio + brand-search lift) get a lighter one. Increase the budget input to see how scale changes the forecast — that's how the channel actually behaves in real delivery.
How is this calculated? →
Four numbers, four stages of the InfluBase.io engine — trained on $8M+ of tracked delivery across 67 markets and 12 verticals.
Predicted CPA — median of a posterior from our proprietary cost model. Variance is calibrated quarterly: within ±25% of actual on 2 in 3 campaigns, within ±50% on 7 in 8.
Conversions + reach — derived from CPA × budget and a vertical-baseline CPM scaled by a per-market efficiency multiplier. Bands use empirical p25 / p75 points, not symmetric ±X%.
Revenue + ROAS — conversions × your contribution × a budget-scaled incrementality factor. Smaller budgets get a steeper discount (portfolio variance is higher, brand effect hasn't compounded). That's why the same vertical × market dynamically shifts as you change the budget — it's how the channel actually behaves in delivery.
What sits behind the engagement, not on this page: creator-audience overlap scoring, per-creator rate-card calibration, and the attribution model that maps creator-level signals to conversion probability. Those layers are what make a forecast actually hold up in delivery — and they only get tuned to your specific product on a call.
Send us your product. Get the band.
The calculator gives you the headline. The full forecast — predicted CPA per creator archetype, attribution methodology, sample creator shortlist — comes from a 30-minute conversation. Two working days, no slides.